2025 Mutua Madrid Open WTA 1000 Preview: Can Sabalenka Slay the Field?
World No. 2 Iga Swiatek will look to defend her 2024 Mutua Madrid Open WTA 1000 title when the main draw begins Tuesday, April 22.
Aryna Sabalenka, last year’s runner-up, and others in the field will look to dethrone the reigning champ and “Queen of Clay.”
Join me as I break this down with a Madrid Open prediction for the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open, beginning Tuesday, April 22.
The Caja Magica Tennis Complex and Other Factors
The Madrid Open WTA tournament is held at the Caja Mágica, a renowned tennis complex in Madrid, Spain. It features three courts with retractable roofs to accommodate outdoor clay court play.
Madrid offers mild weather from late April to early May, with temperatures around 15-20°C (59-68°F). The Caja Mágica’s clay courts play faster than typical clay due to the city’s 650m altitude, favoring aggressive players.
The dry air reduces humidity, making the ball fly quicker and benefiting big servers and hitters.
2025 Mutua Madrid Open Main Draw
Past Mutua Madrid Open Champions in the Draw
- Iga Swiatek (2024)
- Aryna Sabalenka (2021, 2023)
- Ons Jabeur (2022)
- Petra Kvitova (2011, 2015, 2018)
2025 Mutua Madrid Open Championship Betting Odds by DraftKings
Aryna Sabalenka Seeks Third Madrid Open Crown
Aryna Sabalenka’s Stuttgart run means the World No. 1 means business. Her serve and massive groundies make her a strong favorite, and she has as straight a path as possible.
Sabalenka is in the same quarter as Qinwen Zheng and holds a 6-0 mark (all on hardcourts) against the Chinese No. 1.
There’s always a danger of a letdown from her Stuttgart run; if that is the case, these players, including Zheng, could sneak through her quarterfinal.
Camila Osorio is fresh off a WTA 250 title run in Bogota. She’s scrappy and on the rise, with a 4-4 mark against the Top 50 on this surface.
Paula Badosa has the game and the fight to make some noise, but health is always an issue with the big-hitting Spaniard.
Emma Raducanu has the type of game to make a run, but health and a poor history on this surface might see the Brit out early.
Jessica Pegula’s Nightmare Madrid Open Quarter
Jessica Pegula is in a tough quarter, but her confidence is soaring after her Charleston title. She could meet former champ Ons Jabeur in the third, and always-tough Daria Kasatkina potentially awaits in the Round of 16.
Stuttgart semifinalist Jasmine Paolini could be her quarterfinal opponent. The 2024 Roland Garros finalist’s run for the Porsche tells me she’s healthy and ready to challenge on this surface.
Ons Jabeur has struggled with injuries, but her defense and experience could land her a spot in the quarters.
Elena Rybakina hasn’t won a title in more than one year, but Rybakina has the game and the draw to end that drought.
Daria Kasatkina has the game to get past Ekaterina Alexandrova, which would set up a potential Round of 16 battle with Pegula.
Mirra Andreeva Tricky Madrid Open Quarter
Teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva already has two WTA 1000 titles on her mantle, but winning her third will be challenging as Coco Gauff and others are in her quarter.
Andreeva may skate through the early rounds, but 2023 French Open finalist Karolina Muchova possibly awaits in the Round of 16, followed by a potential quarterfinal showdown with former teen sensation Gauff.
Coco Gauff hasn’t reached a quarterfinal since the Australian Open, but she’s a fighter with a good draw and a 2-0 straight-up mark over Andreeva.
Karolina Muchova has suffered numerous injuries and mixed results, but her game is made for the dirt, and she could push a player like Andreeva.
Iga Swiatek Seeks First Title of 2025
No. 2 Iga Swiatek hasn’t won a title since the 2024 French Open. Her results have been spotty, and she’s not the dominant force she once was on this surface.
She’ll likely coast until the Round of 16, where Stuttgart finalist and former French Open champ Jelena Ostapenko could improve her record to 7-0 against Swiatek.
If Swiatek advances past the Round of 16, she could meet Australian Open champion Madison Keys. The American hasn’t played since Charleston, but her big serve could lead her to a great run or a quick exit.
Emma Navarro has good but not great results, but is 2-1 lifetime against Keys and could advance for a quarterfinal matchup with Swiatek.
2025 Mutua Madrid Open Prediction
The altitude makes this an attractive event for Sabalenka, but will she have enough gas in the tank to win the WTA 1000?
Sabalenka has already reached consecutive WTA 1000 finals this year. She’s fit, has a good draw, and could make it to her second consecutive WTA 1000 final.
She defeated potential semifinal opponents Paolini in Stuttgart and Pegula in the Miami Open final. Neither match was close, so I’ll go with Sabalenka to reach the final.
I want to say Swiatek as her opponent, but that’s tough. She was miffed after losing her sixth straight to Ostapenko and could face the former champion again in Madrid.
The pressure has gotten to her, and I’m not sure she will make the final.
That would leave the door open for Keys or Gauff.
Keys hasn’t played much since winning the Aussie Open, but the altitude aids both her serve and her forehand. Gauff is 2-3 against her American rival, but Keys beat her here in 2024 and can do so again.
A Keys/Sabalenka rematch of their 2025 Australian Open finale would be a fun way to end the Madrid Open. Sabalenka would love to beat Keys, but Madison is the better mover and would have an edge.
Prediction: Sabalenka
