2025 Mutua Madrid Open Preview: Jokers Wild!
The road to Roland Garros winds on with a stop in Madrid for the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open Masters 1000.
Carlos Alcaraz is the betting favorite to win his third Madrid Masters crown, but Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune, and Arthur Fils might have something to say about that.
Join me as I break this one down and offer a prediction for the 2025 Mutua Madrid Masters, beginning Wednesday, April 23, and don’t forget our Mutua Madrid Open Women’s Singles preview.
The Caja Magica Tennis Complex and Other Factors
The Madrid Open WTA tournament is held at the Caja Mágica, a renowned tennis complex in Madrid, Spain. It features three courts with retractable roofs to accommodate outdoor clay court play.
Madrid offers mild weather from late April to early May, with temperatures around 15-20°C (59-68°F). The Caja Mágica’s clay courts play faster than typical clay due to the city’s 650m altitude, favoring aggressive players.
The dry air reduces humidity, making the ball fly quicker and benefiting big servers and hitters.
2025 Mutua Madrid Open Main Draw
Past Mutua Madrid Open Champions in the Draw
- Andrey Rublev (2024)
- Carlos Alcaraz (2022, 2023)
- Alexander Zverev (2018, 2021)
- Novak Djokovic (2011, 2016, 2019)
2025 Mutua Madrid Open Championship Betting Odds by DraftKings
Alexander Zverev’s Brutal Madrid Open Quarter
BMW Open champ Alexander Zverev has a brutal draw. He has Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Francisco Cerundolo, and Arthur Fils in his section, and he could face 2024 champ Andrey Rublev in the quarters.
It’s not to say Zverev can’t advance past his quarter because he can. The problem with the German is that he hasn’t played consistently since Melbourne, and each player mentioned above can push back against his booming serve and punishing two-hander.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Good European Clay court season, reaching the semis in Monte Carlo and the quarters in Barcelona. He awaits the winner of Nuno Borges/Pablo Carreno Busta and, if he advances, Zverev in the third.
Francisco Cerundolo: The Buenos Aires finalist hasn’t had the best clay court season and is in a tough quarter. Arthur Fils could be his third-round opponent with Zverev in the Round of 16.
Arthur Fils: Fils has the game to win here, and his results on the European clay have been solid. He has all the tools he needs, and his confidence is growing daily. Fils is my dark horse to advance to the semis.
Ben Shelton: The BMW finalist awaits the winner of the Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard/Mariano Navone battle. Jakub Mensic will likely be in the third round, and maybe Rublev in the quarters.
Jakub Mensic: The Miami Open winner is just 6-5 across the last year on dirt, but a potential third-round clash with Shelton in the Madrid air is must-see TV.
Andrey Rublev: The defending champ is playing .500 ball on the dirt this spring, but his game is strong enough to reach the quarters. Where his head is remains the question.
Taylor Fritz Health Concerns Ahead of Madrid Open
Is Taylor Fritz healthy? He’s been dealing with an ab problem since Melbourne. He managed the Sunshine Double but has pulled out of all European Clay Court events thus far.
He has a nice draw leading up to a tricky one with oft-injured Hubert Hurkacz, followed by a potential Round of 16 encounter with clay court specialist Casper Ruud. Then, potentially Barcelona champ and hit or miss Holger Rune in the quarter.
Casper Ruud: Splendid 2024, tough 2025. He can beat Fritz on this surface, but his struggles against big servers are legendary, and he’ll need to get through Sebastian Korda in the third and Fritz in the fourth just for a shot at Rune or Zverev.
Hubert Hurkacz: When healthy, he’s the United Cup finalist and Rotterdam semifinalist. When he’s not, he’s out in the second round with an injury. The big bomber hasn’t played since Indian Wells, and I wouldn’t expect much from Hurkacz in Madrid.
Sebastian Korda: Korda has the serve to get past Ruud, but he’s another who’s been injured and has .500 clay-court results the past year.
Felix Auger-Aliassime: The Canadian has the serve to get the job done, and if he can escape Daniil Medvedev in the third round, he’s 2-2 lifetime against Rune (none on clay).
Fabian Marozsan: Solid run to the semis in Munich and beat first-round opponent Flavio Cobolli in a dirt-court qualie (2022). If he gets past the Italian, he could sneak by Barcelona winner Rune with the game to beat Medvedev and FAA on the Madrid dirt.
Flavio Cobolli: Cobolli won Bucharest, but big servers seem to overpower the young Italian, and that’s no bueno against bigger guns like Marozsan and Rune.
Holger Rune: I love his draw, but he’s struggled with injuries and is also coming off a HUGE upset victory over Alcaraz in the Barcelona finale. Look for an early exit from the Dane.
Does Djokovic Have One More Madrid Masters Run Left in Him?
Novak Djokovic certainly does have one more run in him, and he has the draw to set up a possible semifinal encounter with Alcaraz.
Joker might be struggling sometimes, but he has the game to beat Matteo Arnaldi and enough experience to beat Sebastian Baez, Frances Tiafoe, and Ugo Humbert.
Jack Draper would likely be what’s stopping him from advancing to the semis, but Joker has been inconsistent and hasn’t won an ATP Tour 1000 on the dirt since the 2022 Rome Masters.
Joao Fonseca: I’m unsure what he will do in Madrid, but I’m looking forward to watching the Buenos Aires champ rip forehands against possibly Tommy Paul and Barcelona semifinalist Karen Khachanov.
Sebastian Baez: I love his clay-court game, but his serve is not big enough to get the Argentinian past a potential third-round contest with Djokovic.
Karen Khachanov: Khachanov has the game to meet Draper in the Round of 16, but he’s 2-2 against the Brit and 1-9 straight-up against Joker.
Jack Draper: Draper has a real shot to reach the semis. He has the serve and aggressive groundies to wreak havoc with Matteo Berrettini, Paul, and Khachanov and could meet a gassed Joker in the quarters.
Alcaraz Injury Concerns Ahead of Madrid Masters
Carlos Alcaraz is the hometown favorite, but the Spanish No.1 also has injury concerns heading into Madrid.
Alcaraz tweaked his lower back in his Barcelona final against Rune, but he won’t likely play until Friday or Saturday. It’s a pity because Carlitos has a straight shot at a quarterfinal against possibly Stefanos Tsitsipas or Lorenzo Musetti.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has decent spring clay court results, but a tough potential third-rounder with Lorenzo Musetti could end his time in Madrid.
Lorenzo Musetti had a great run to the Monte Carlo final cut short with an injury. Skipping Barcelona was a good idea, but his mediocre second serve could get him into trouble in Madrid.
Tomas Machac is either boom or bust. When he’s booming, he’s winning titles. When he’s not, he’s retiring early from matches, with six retirements since 2024.
Alex de Minaur can scrap and claw with the best of them, but his road to the final likely ends with Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.
Mutua Madrid Open Prediction
If Alcaraz is fit, he will likely win. He’s playing in front of practically his hometown crowd and has already won this event TWICE before age 20.
If Alcaraz can’t manage physically, you have to consider Djokovic. It will be a bumpy ride, but he can beat everyone in his quarter and nearly everyone in his semi.
I would stay up past my bedtime to watch a Fonseca/Djokovic quarter, but I think Joker and Draper meet for the first time since Djokovic 19-year-old Draper in the opening round (2021) on the All England Club’s famed Centre Court.
Alcaraz or Djokovic’s final opponent will probably be Zverev, Fils, Fritz, or maybe Auger-Aliassime.
I like Arthur Fils to reach the semis. He proved to Zverev in Miami his serve and groundies were big enough to push back against the German, and Fils destroyed Rublev in Monte Carlo.
A Fils/Fritz Madrid Masters semi would be a welcome sight, and if that did happen, I would give the edge to Fils. Hopefully, He’ll be the fitter of the two when the time comes, and Fritz and his ab issue scare me off him.
FAA has the serve and forehand win this event, but the rest of his game concerns me. If he gets hot, I would say he has a shot to a semi, and if he isn’t afraid to let that rocket forehand rip, he could come out of his section and vie for the title.
Prediction: Novak Djokovic
